The Probability of Becoming a Professional Footballer

Walter Sperger

vor 2 Stunden

5 Min. Lesezeit

How high is the probability of becoming a professional footballer?

This is certainly a question many talents ask themselves, and the answer — or rather its statistical derivation — should always be viewed critically. "Projections predict the future, provided everything stays the same." (Alexander Eilers, aphorist, born 1976 in Fulda). I definitely want to place this sentence at the very start of my article, because statistics are based on past figures on the one hand, and represent average values on the other.

I also want to derive the figures found in the following lines transparently, so you have the opportunity to validate them. In doing so, the figures focus solely on players who train at DFB regional bases or at youth academies (NLZ), and subsequently in the Bundesligas. It's no secret that there are players who take, or have taken, different paths, but they are not accounted for in this numerical model.

Dear statisticians!

Of course, I'm aware that the probability of receiving a professional contract at the end of a development career may be calculated differently, mathematically speaking (an event tree), since these are successive events. So one may ask how high the probability is of advancing from one development age group to the next, and so on, until one finally ends up in the U19 Bundesliga team, and then multiplying that by the probability of receiving a professional contract.

Example: A U13 player is accepted into a DFB regional base in development year 1. He then advances within the U13 range to the second development year and subsequently becomes a player on an NLZ team (U14), advances to the NLZ's U15, until he finally plays in that club's U19 team.

This results in the following calculation example (the values are fictional and make no claim to reflect reality — the DFB has the real data in detail):

Probability of advancing, 1st year DFB regional base (90%)
Probability of acceptance into an NLZ (17%)
Probability of advancing, NLZ U15 (75%)
Probability of advancing, NLZ U16 (70%)
Probability of advancing, NLZ U17 (65%)
Probability of advancing, NLZ U18 (60%)
Probability of advancing, NLZ U19 (55%)

=> 0.90 0.17 0.75 0.58 0.47 0.37 0.21 ≈ 1.72%

In our example, the player would advance to the NLZ's U19 with a probability of 1.72%.

Unfortunately, I lack the numerical basis for such a calculation, but it already becomes clear how a statistically correct figure is derived, and that it lies in a very low percentage range before the decimal point. In reality, many factors also play a role in whether a player advances or remains loyal to football at all.

Annual professional debutants:

According to Transfermarkt.de, over the past five seasons, 148 professionals with German citizenship made their debut in the 1st Bundesliga, 281 in the 2nd Bundesliga, and 468 in the 3rd Bundesliga, all while being younger than 24. That's a total of 897 debutants in 5 years. On average, then, 179.4 players with German citizenship and under the age of 24 make their professional debut in our top three leagues each year.

Why do I only consider players with German citizenship and under the age of 24?

On the one hand, I don't want to include talents from abroad who are scouted and signed by clubs at a later development age, and on the other hand, this also lets me include players who don't receive a professional contract immediately after the U19 stage, but instead continue developing in amateur football. Receiving a first professional contract at age 24, however, is again quite unlikely.

So how high is the probability of a supported player becoming a professional?

So if we assume that at a regional base — there are currently 366 in Germany — about 10 players per age group are scouted, and that at the respective youth academies (NLZ), of which there are 59 nationally, a team of about 25 players is established, that comes to 5,135 players per age group (currently mainly the 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012 birth years).

If you subtract the female juniors, about 11%, at the regional bases from this number, that leaves about 4,732 male juniors per age group.

This means that if you, as a boy in the U13 or U15 age group, take part in regional-base training or are supported at an NLZ, then the probability of later receiving a professional contract in one of the top three leagues is:

179.4/4,732 ≈ 3.8%

This is a purely calculatory value that only assesses this particular moment and does not take into account that players on an NLZ team have higher chances than regional-base players.

Probability of a supported female player becoming a professional:

For lack of better data, I also have to make assumptions here, and I'm working from the squads of the 1st and 2nd Women's Football Bundesliga, 12 teams in the 1st Women's Bundesliga and 14 teams in the 2nd Women's Bundesliga.

With a similar rate of debutants in professional football, this means:

· 179.4 men's debutants across 56 teams in the top three leagues

· 179.4 / 56 × 26 ≈ 83.3 professional debuts per year among women

· 11% of the 3,660 supported players per age group at the DFB regional bases ≈ 402 female players.

83.3/402.6 ≈ 20.69%

Statistically speaking, the probability of a supported female junior later receiving a contract in the 1st or 2nd Women's Bundesliga is 20.69%

As already mentioned at the outset, this is all a numbers game, but it certainly provides a reasonably valid approach.

Probability of a U19 NLZ player receiving a professional contract:

59 NLZs with teams of 27 players each: a total of about 1,593 players

179.4/1,593 ≈ 11.26%

Probability of a junior Bundesliga player receiving a professional contract:

Statistically speaking, one can of course calculate many further scenarios, with the total population of the group under consideration changing each time. For example, one can take a look at the probability of becoming a professional when playing on junior Bundesliga teams:

There are currently three junior Bundesliga divisions in Germany (North/Northeast, West, and South/Southwest), for both the U17 and the U19. In these leagues, 14 teams play, each with about 27 players. That means about 1,134 players per league and age group.

The probability of a junior Bundesliga player making a professional debut in one of the three Bundesligas is therefore:

179.4/1,134 ≈ 15.8%

Probability of a U17 Bundesliga female player receiving a professional contract:

There are currently three divisions in the U17 Bundesliga for female juniors, each with 10 teams. Assuming a team consists of 27 female players, that gives a total population of 810 female juniors.

83.3/810 ≈ 10.28%

Based on this result, and in comparison to the probability of a regional-base female player receiving a professional contract, it becomes clear that this involves assumptions on the one hand, and a snapshot assessment at a given point in time on the other, rather than an evaluation of the process.

Furthermore, if you don't just look at the numbers in a sterile way, but also consider the reality for individual players, that also means staying as injury-free as possible and giving maximum effort in every training session and every match.

It also helps when a coach nurtures the talent and gives him their trust, and when nothing stands in the way of the player's physical and personal development.

Personality development during puberty (in boys, it begins between the ages of 10 and 14 and ends between the ages of 18 and 21) is a particular challenge here. Parents often can no longer reach their children during this phase, because the children want to distance themselves from them.

Amid all these challenges, a systemic coach with insight into the respective "worlds" can help overcome obstacles.

I look forward to taking up another topic in talent development with you next week under my column "So schaut's aus." Until then! Stay healthy, and always a good match!